Is Dr. Simba Makoni Genuine?

Is Dr. Simba Makoni Genuine?
The recent announcement by the former Finance Minister, Dr. Simba Makoni, to challenge Robert Mugabe as a private candidate has received mixed feelings in the Zimbabwean blogosphere. Kubatana blog writes:

The only people who don’t seem vaguely fazed by Simba Makoni’s election bid are the beauticians in Cleopatra’s Beauty Parlour next to my office. They seem to have fallen asleep face first in their towels. Yesterday, a friend of mine called Anna, told me that its a good thing that Simba is posing some sort of challenge to Mugabe because, in her words, “Mugabe is an old man and doesn’t listen to the people”. There’s truth in that.

Dr. Makoni's victory will be a miracle:

It appears to me that there is much excitement around Zimbabwe’s forthcoming elections, and even naive hope that Simba Makoni may somehow, by some miracle, defeat Mugabe at the polls. People seem to have forgotten that democracy and good governance are not part of Zanu PF’s political DNA. President Mugabe was not elected by his party to be Presidential candidate – in fact l believe that if the matter had been taken to the vote then Mugabe would not have been the candidate – but through hook and crook Mugabe emerged as Zanu’s sole Presidential candidate. The same thing is likely to happen with presidential elections, that Mugabe will somehow claim victory, regardless of the credentials or stature of candidates running against him. The electoral field does not allow for any other outcome. Already, pseudo-war veterans are threatening to deal viciously with Makoni.

Is Dr. Makoni a last minute spoiler?:

In our office Dennis suggested that Simba’s entry into the race is a ploy by Mugabe to steal votes from disillusioned MDC supporters.
Yes, it’s quite likely that Makoni will attract a large number of Zimbabweans who would have voted for Tsvangirai. If Makoni does attract this support it means that Zanu PF’s chunk of the vote, one way or another, gets bigger. So how independent is Simba? How genuine is his bid? Is he a late minute spoiler, or Mugabe’s running puppet?

Zebra-Mbizi is not sure how significant his candidacy will be:

Having said all this we are rather amused to see now that Zanu PF has split. A faction headed by Simba Makoni, a former finance minister has seized the initiative and had entered the presidential race. We are as yet not sure of the significance of this entry all we do know is that Morgan Tsvangirai the leader of the Movement Democratic Change may well lose support. A breakaway faction of the MDC, the Mutumbara faction (Senator Arthur Mutumbara) has already declared its suppoort for Simba Makoni. Makoni appears to have a radical programme, to reconstruct the nation but he has surrounded himself with some of the dregs of the old regime: General Mujuru, Jabulani Moyo just to name two of his supporters; these men are not known for their democratic credentials and were principal supporters of the old regime.

It is strange, writes The Bearded Man, that Mugabe has been so silent on Makoni's candidacy:

Once again I question Mugabe's silence on the Makoni participation in the Presidential ballot. Whilst ZANU PF has expelled Makoni, Mugabe himself stays mum on the matter. He has informed the watching world that he is ‘raring to go' and only seems intent on beating the MDC (with votes - as opposed to physically beating them), and has stated that he will not recognise any result unless it is a ZANU PF win.

Does Makoni count as ZANU PF?

Why is Mugabe reluctant to comes out fighting in his normal belligerent style?

Yes, Makoni may beat Mugabe - but that would only be for the top job. The ruling party may win the lion's share of seats, leaving Makoni effectively marooned on a ZANU PF desert island.

What then?

I remain a little concerned that Mugabe keeps quiet. The main worry I have is that the ruling party is selling the population a dummy. What if the Makoni candidature is really orchestrated by the ruling party? Offering a wolf in sheep's clothing. An alternative to Mugabe, knowing full well that the offered alternative is really much of the same?

Why else would Mugabe chose to keep quiet? He is renowned for his withering speeches and his handing out accusations as if they were confetti…

Zvenyika E Mugari at TalkMedia, a blog of media scholars and academics at Midlands State University, defends Dr. Makoni: